Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
